The research pool in numbers
mypacing runs on people who voluntarily contribute their pseudonymised daily values to a shared analysis. Here's the honest state of that pool right now — every figure with its source and date, none for a group smaller than 10 people.
Nobody is individually identifiable. Every figure on this page describes a group of at least 10 people.
As of 02.09.2026. The four figures on the left are checked daily against the database by the health-check watchdog — if the page grows too stale or drifts too far, the system flags it, and a human decides when to update. The data points on the right count live.
Who takes part
Of 208 people in the pool, 130 contribute at least one wearable value (resting heart rate or steps), 85 have marked at least one crash day. 64 have both — a device and their own crash marks: exactly the group that lets us check whether a crash can be foreseen from exertion.
| Data type | Days in pool | Share of 106,313 days |
|---|---|---|
| Steps | 94,323 | 89 % |
| Resting heart rate | 64,631 | 61 % |
| Sleep | 47,168 | 44 % |
| Heart rate variability (HRV) | 36,946 | 35 % |
| Exertion (self-report) | 27,733 | 26 % |
People who wear a watch usually contribute steps and resting heart rate automatically; HRV and exertion depend more on device choice and manual entry — the same pattern the data profile ("Datensteckbrief") from 27 Aug 2026 found: people who mark crashes by hand often bring heart rate and HRV with them, but not continuous step or sleep tracking.
How long a crash lasts
421 connected episodes from 1,254 marked days, as of 02.09.2026. Nearly half are over within a day — a fifth last a week or longer.
This describes the reports in the pool, not a forecast for any one person — your own crash may be shorter or considerably longer.
How well the early warning measures right now
Recomputed daily, tested on people the model has never seen before (leave-one-person-out). These figures update automatically when the page loads.
AUC 0.568, confidence interval 0.510 to 0.599, across 391 marked episode onsets from 67 people (as of 28.08.2026).
0.5 means "no better than a coin toss". If the confidence interval includes 0.5, the weights learned from the community switch off automatically and every account counts at 1.0 instead — the current switch state is on the Technology page. There is no advertised hit rate.
Everything here comes solely from voluntary, pseudonymised data. Nothing is shared with third-party companies. The more people mark their crash days while wearing a device, the sooner the warning above can move out of coin-toss range.
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